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Google Ads vs organic search: what does a year actually cost?
Three numbers. One honest answer for your business — across 12 and 36 months. The maths is conservative on purpose; the conclusion is yours to draw.
Methodology & assumptions
- Paid clicks are derived from budget ÷ CPC — the only honest formula. We do not infer search volume from a paid CTR and then re-multiply against organic CTR; that double-counts.
- Organic CTR by position: Backlinko's 2024 study (backlinko.com/google-ctr-stats) — pos 1 = 27%, pos 3 = 11%, pos 5 = 7%. Industry medians, not your niche specifically.
- Organic search volume proxy: total addressable queries are estimated as paid clicks ÷ 5%. That assumes ~5% of impressions on the ad slot convert to clicks — typical for UK service queries per WordStream UK benchmarks. It is a proxy, not your real keyword volume; treat the organic-clicks figure as a ceiling at this position, not a forecast.
- Year-1 organic cost = chosen tier × 12 months. Foundation £540, Growth Engine £2,340 (Bespoke quoted per engagement). Tier includes hosting, technical SEO and (Growth Engine+) two articles a month — there is no separate content invoice on top.
- Organic plateau at the stated position by month 9 is realistic for low-to-medium-competition UK SMB service queries on Growth Engine cadence. Head terms in saturated niches (personal-injury solicitor London, e.g.) take longer; for those the calculator over-promises the organic side.
- Conversion rate is applied identically to paid and organic leads — conservative; organic on service intent typically converts 1.3–1.5× higher than paid landing pages.
- 3-year ads cost is flat — no CPC inflation modelled (UK CPCs have risen ~8–12% per year). Conservative; favours ads.
- Sovereignty footnote: organic traffic lands on a
site hosted in Vercel London (region
lhr1). Google Ads serves attention from US infrastructure. The cost number is only half the comparison — see /compliance.